If you like early, small DFS slates then today’s New Year’s Eve College Hoops action is just for you! DraftKings has just three CBB games to roster from while FanDuel’s slate includes only two of those matchups. Both sites tip-off their contests at 1pm ET with Marshall-Virginia, and conclude with a 4pm ET tilt of Creighton-Providence - with Harvard-Boston College as the throw-in game from DK.
Some people prefer these shorter slates because it allows them to focus on just a few teams and hone in on the must-have studs and value plays from each game. Still, the smaller player pool makes it tougher to cash in all formats because you really don’t cant miss out on the 1-2 players who smash value.
Here at Fantasy Alarm, though, we do not discriminate on size of slate or type of DFS contest when it comes to College Basketball. If there are games to roster players from, you know we’ll be dishing out advice either way.
As always, with a particular focus on KenPom’s advanced metrics and recent game trends, we’ll point out the teams to target as a whole before breaking down the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS lineups today. The point spreads and over/under’s below are also based on KenPom’s predictions for that matchup.
If you have any questions or comments on the day’s slate or anything college basketball-related, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @dan_servodidio or in the Fantasy Alarm CBB chat room!
Matchup To Target
Creighton @ Providence - 4 pm ET (DK & FD) - This is the first conference game of the season for both Big East squads expected to contend for the league title. KenPom predicts Providence as just 1-point home favorites (the tightest matchup on the slate) with 153 implied total points between the two teams (the highest on the slate). Creighton runs at the 70th-fastest tempo in the nation while Providence is just 218th. On such a short slate, practically all starters from both teams are in play today.
Guards
Alpha Diallo - PROV ($9,700 DK / $8,700 FD) - If you’re paying up for one of the three high-priced guards today, Diallo is the safest bet for 30-40 DFS points with the potential for much more as the top offensive option in the highest scoring game. The 6’7” junior is a matchup nightmare playing the 3-guard role for Providence. In his last ten games, Diallo has scored 20 real points five different times as the clear-cut top scorer for the Friars. He’s also racked up 35+ DK points in six separate games over that stretch as the team’s leading rebounder. In close games - which should be today for Providence - Diallo plays 35+ minutes and dominates the possession usage. Again if you’re paying up for one guard today, Diallo is your man.
Damien Jefferson - CRE ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD) - Jefferson’s recent game log can be a bit misleading for DFS. Creighton’s last two games were blowout wins and Jefferson did not play his normal 30 starter minutes. Today’s matchup vs. Providence will be much closer, though, and Creighton will need Jefferson’s team-leading shooting efficiency more than ever. The sophomore is shooting 60% from the field and 50% from 3-point land this season. Although Jefferson will most likely be tasked with guarding Alpha Diallo today, don’t let foul trouble worry you as he’s only reached four fouls twice in the last ten games. Jefferson’s value rises on DK today because of his forward position eligibility.
Maliek White - PROV ($4,200 DK / $6,000 FD) - White is severely underpriced on DK today considering his production over the last three games. With AJ Reeves out for Providence during that three-game stretch, White put up 31, 30 and 24 fantasy points as his usage and ball-handling responsibilities have skyrocketed. Reeves will be out again today - and for the next few weeks - placing White as a very good value play on DK. His FanDuel salary is a bit trickier to navigate, but he can still 4x or 5x that price tag.
Kihei Clark - UVA ($3,800 DK / $4,400 FD) - Clark is coming off two dud performances - hence his cheap salary on both sites - but those were his first two games returning from mid-season wrist surgery. Clark saw 24 and 27 minutes in those games, respectively, as he’s still being worked back into UVA’s rotation. Before his injury, though, the freshman was Virginia’s starting point guard and routinely put up 15-20 DFS points. Eventually, we’ll see 30+ minutes and normal fantasy production again from Clark - and he’ll be the value play du jour when he does.
Other Guards to Consider:
Ky Bowman - BC ($9,900 DK Only)
Jon Elmore - MRSH ($8,400 FD Only)
Kyle Guy - UVA ($6,100 DK / $6,300 FD)
Makai Ashton-Langford - PROV ($3,100 DK / $4,000 FD)
Forwards
Nik Popovic - BC ($6,900 DK Only) - There’s no denying how weak the forward position is today with no elite option to pay up for on the minimal number of teams in action. On DK, the four highest-priced forwards come from this Hartford-Boston College matchup. If you are paying up for one of those four, Popovic is the best bang for your buck. Over the last five games, the 6’11” junior has two double-doubles and three games of 10+ shot attempts as he’s playing a large portion of the center minutes. Although Hartford boasts two solid forwards in Blagojevic and Carroll, the team does not rebound particularly well, especially on the defensive glass. Popovic could get enough putbacks to record another double-double and return value here.
Martin Krampelj - CRE ($4,800 DK / $5,300 FD) - As mentioned earlier, we want to prioritize this game as the highest-scoring on the small slate - and Krampelj is Creighton’s starting center. The 6’9” junior seems to have gained the trust of his coach to be more involved in the offense lately. He’s scored in double-digits in each of the last three games - two of which he took 10 or more shots - and tends to get 25-30 minutes against better competition. Even at this price, though, he may be more a GPP play because of his bust potential.
Jack Salt - UVA ($3,500 DK / $4,700 FD) - It’s always risky rostering Virginia players because of how many less possessions the offense runs comparatively and how low-scoring their games tend to be. But at such a weak forward position today and a couple high-priced guards we want to lock in, we need to find value somewhere. Salt be just the play since his opponent today (Marshall) is a poor rebounding team and he’s getting the majority of minutes at the center position. Although he doesn’t offer much on the offensive end, Salt could be in line for double-digit rebounds and 15-20 fantasy points if he stays out of foul trouble. At this price, you’ll take that all day long.
Other Forwards to Consider:
George Blagojevic - HART ($7,500 DK Only)
Nate Watson - PROV ($5,300 DK / $5,900 FD)
Mamadi Diakite - UVA ($3,700 DK / $4,500 FD)
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: Kyle Guy, UVA - $6,100
G: Maliek White, PROV - $4,200
G: Alpha Diallo, PROV - $9,700
F: Jack Salt, UVA - $3,500
F: Damien Jefferson, CRE - $5,700
F: Nik Popovic, BC - $6,900
U: Ky Bowman, BC - $9,900
U: Kihei Clark, UVA - $3,800
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: Kyle Guy, UVA - $6,300
G: Damien Jefferson, CRE - $8,400
G: Alpha Diallo, PROV - $8,700
G: Jon Elmore, MRSH - $8,400
F: Jack Salt, UVA - $4,700
F: Martin Krampelj, CRE - $5,300
F: Nate Watson, PROV - $5,900
U: Makai Ashton-Langford, PROV - $4,000