We’ve got another small DFS College Hoops slate tonight - four games on DraftKings’ docket and just three on FanDuel. As always, though, there are lineup decisions to be made as we try to find enough value to fit in the top-tier studs.
A quick note on tonight’s DraftKings slate: Arizona State-Nevada will tip off 30 minutes after TCU-USC ends as the two games are being played on the same floor at Staples Center. Expect the late-night hammer (emphasis on late) to get going at midnight Eastern. FanDuel players don’t have to worry about this since that game isn’t on the slate.
Let’s dive in!
Games to Target
TCU vs. USC - 9:30 pm ET (DK & FD) - Like last night, the shorter slates make it hard to fade any game entirely but if we had to choose one to get the most exposure to, this matchup is on both sites. Being played at Staples Center in Los Angeles, USC has the theoretical home-court advantage, but TCU comes in as 2.5-point favorites. The 149.5 over/under accounts for good offenses on both sides - TCU is KenPom’s 48th-most efficient offense while USC ranks 66th in the category.
Arizona State vs. Nevada - 11:59 pm ET (DK Only) - It’s a shame the second game of the Staples Center doubleheader is only available on DraftKings. We’ve got a Top 25 matchup between two undefeated teams with huge tournament resume implications on the line for these non-conference foes. The 158.5 expected point total is massive for college basketball standards and you’ll want to get 2-3 pieces of this game on DK.
Guards
Luguentz Dort - ASU ($8,600 DK Only) - If Remy Martin is out for the Sun Devils, Dort will take over point guard duties once again - Martin has missed the last two games with an ankle injury. Even if Martin plays, Dort has been a scoring machine for ASU. He’s attempted double-digit shots in every game this season and you can expect at least 35 fantasy points from him in what will be a back-and-forth offensive battle with Nevada.
Jordan Caroline - NEV ($8,100 DK Only) - The Martin twins are the headliners for Nevada but Caroline has quietly been the more productive fantasy play for most of the season. Caroline scores and rebounds exceptionally well for the Wolfpack - his 10 boards per game lead the team while his 18.5 points per game trail only Caleb Martin’s 19.9. We’re still waiting for Caroline’s price to catch up to his production as he’s put up six double-doubles on the year and has three games of over 40 fantasy points so far. Plus, he’s guard and forward eligible on DraftKings - making it easier to fit him in lineups.
Alex Robinson - TCU ($7,800 DK / $8,200 FD) - Robinson’s price has dropped below the $8,000 mark for the first time since mid-November and it’s only because of his less-than-spectacular 26.5 fantasy points last time out. TCU’s lead ball-handler can easily return value if he’s dishing out the ball like he normally does. His 9.1 assists per game lead the way for the Horned Frogs and he’s racked up double-digit assists in three games this season.
Jaylen Fisher - TCU ($6,100 DK / $7,000 FD) - We recommended Fisher two days ago when TCU was on the slate and the junior went out and hit five three-pointers and gave DFS players 27 points on DK. As he still makes his way back from injury, Fisher’s role right now is to provide starter-level scoring off the bench with the team feeding him for quality shot attempts. Sign me up at this price for potential 4x return.
Jordan Geist - MIZZ ($5,600 DK / $6,700 FD) - Missouri could easily blow out Oral Roberts tonight - the Tigers are favored by 17 - which makes it tough to project how many minutes the starters play. Geist is one of those starting guards who should see less than 30 minutes just because the game will likely be over by halftime. Still, though, Geist is trending up over the past six games where he’s launched double-digit shot attempts in each.
David Duke - PROV ($4,000 DK / $4,900 FD) - The freshman’s playing time has been a bit inconsistent this year because he’s prone to getting into extreme foul trouble while other times he stays away. Duke is more a value play who should get more usage if Providence is leading early and often and gives their young guard more run with the game in hand late.
Torrence Watson - MIZZ ($3,100 DK / $3,600 FD) - Like we mentioned with Geist above, if Missouri is beating Oral Roberts by a lot in the second half, they may tend to play their bench rotation more than usual. Watson is one of those players who has consistently seen more minutes in blowouts this season when Mizzou is either ahead or behind by 15 points. If that’s the case tonight, expect Watson to launch from deep with the potential double-digit real points. This is a pure GPP-play for me and simply not safe enough in cash.
Forwards
Nick Rakocevic - USC ($8,800 DK / $8,800 FD) - Rakocevic has been a beast in the paint for USC this year. He’s easily averaging a double-double - 15.3 points & 11.8 rebounds on the year - giving a really high floor at the forward position. In the five games he does get double-digit points and rebounds, Rakocevic has massive games. The numbers say it all here. In each of those five contests, he grabbed at least 12 boards, put up double-digit shots and gave DFS players at least 40 fantasy points. It’ll be tough to fade him tonight if he’s giving you this production.
Cody Martin - NEV ($7,400 DK Only) - AKA the other Martin twin. Cody isn’t the scorer his brother is, but he is the team’s best passer and offers a solid balance across most stat categories - he’s averaging 9.9 points, 4.4 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game. When Cody is dishing out to his full potential, he’s way too cheap at this price - flash back to his three straight double-digit assist games to start the year.
Kimani Lawrence - ASU ($6,600 DK Only) - Cheatham is the more dominant big for Arizona State, but Lawrence offers stat-filled starter’s minutes in a game that will have plenty of scoring. Lawrence is putting up double-digit shots from the field, shooting from deep nearly five times per game and can give you five rebounds and/or five assists with how much he’s active on this team.
Kouat Noi - TCU ($6,400 DK / $6,800 FD) - Since returning from injury in November, Noi’s usage has really ramped up in each of the four games he’s played. He’s averaging over 13 shot attempts over the last three outings - half of which come from beyond the 3-point line. Two of those games he provided 30+ fantasy points - albeit at a cheaper price than he’s at tonight.
Mitchell Smith - MIZZ ($3,100 DK / $4,300 FD) - Smith is another of those Mizzou bench players that make good value plays tonight. It’ll be a tough decision to pinpoint which to roster, but Smith offers an option at forward. He’s already getting about 20 minutes as a bench player for Missouri but has yet to reach 10+ boards or points in a game this year. He could get to one or both of those lines if he gets extended playing time tonight.
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: Luguentz Dort, ASU ($8,600)
G: Jaylen Fisher, TCU ($6,100)
G: Jordan Geist, MIZZ ($5.600)
F: Jordan Caroline, NEV ($8,100)
F: Kimani Lawrence, ASU ($6,600)
F: Kouat Noi, TCU ($6,400)
U: Nate Watson, PROV ($5,200)
U: Maliek White, PROV ($3,400)
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: David Duke, PROV ($4,900)
G: Xavier Pinson, MIZZ ($4,000)
G: Jordan Geist, MIZZ ($5.600)
G: Alex Robinson, TCU ($8,200)
F: Nick Rakocevic, USC ($8,800)
F: Kouat Noi, TCU ($6,800)
F: Mitchell Smith, MIZZ ($4,300)
U: Jonah Mathews, USC ($6,300)