LPL-LEC Play-off Saturday

(-210) Team Liquid v Cloud9 (+165)

(-155) G2 Esports v MAD Lions (+120)

LEC and LCS play-offs continue on Saturday, where C9 and TL; the first and second seed respectively. I think TL is coming into the post-season a little stronger with a bit of a more favorable jungle meta weighing for them. Meanwhile across the pond, G2 and MAD match-up in the winner’s finals of the LEC. Let’s check out the picks.

Captain

Caps ($11,400)

For captain, I’d advise playing it safe and picking up a G2 member: in particular, I’d grab Caps. Humanoid has been too inconsistent, and those inconsistencies are punished in a best of 5 series. In addition, you’ll have to pick up a second ADC or second mid laner, and between Jensen and Tactical, I favor Jensen since Tactical hasn’t looked as astounding as he did last year. Meanwhile, while Jensen has to play against Perkz, I don’t think Perkz has looked overwhelmingly dominant, especially when playing with such a great jungle and bottom lane.

Alternatives to consider: Rekkles ($11,700)

Top Lane

Alphari ($6,200)

Alphari is, in my opinion, the best top laner in the west. He has the best match-up on Liquid versus a Fudge that looks roughly play-offs caliber but not much better than that. He’s an absolute monster of a top laner that looks destined for international greatness at some point in his career. Your alternative in Wunder is a great player, but has one of the harder match-ups on G2 since he has to face down Armut: one of the most consistent pieces on MAD.

Alternatives to consider: Wunder ($6,400)

Jungle

Jankos ($7,000)

Blaber is too dangerous for me to recommend Santorin in good faith, even though I think he will play fine. Jungle in general is heavily contested: Elyoya has been the ace on a MAD Lions that has fluctuate between “really quite good” and “not play-off caliber”, and Elyoya seems like one of the only players consistently playing well. Jankos, however, looks much better this season relative to last and has returned to his #1 spot as far as junglers are concerned in the LEC. I recommend the G2 jungler over his Liquid counterpart.

Alternatives to consider: Santorin ($6,600)

Mid Lane

Jensen ($7,000)

Jensen has been stomping game after game for the last month; even in Liquid’s defeat against TSM, he still played really well. Perkz is the GOAT of the west, but if you look strictly at form, I think Jensen is riding a legendary high and his play-off performances have always been fantastic. I think Fudge versus Alphari is too much of a liability for Cloud9, and I think Jensen will be capable of further exploiting that match-up since Perkz has a tendency to play in his lane too much. If he’s not your captain, 100% grab Caps.

Alternatives to consider: Caps ($7,600)

ADC

Rekkles ($7,800)

G2’s acquisition of Rekkles has basically secured them another full year at least of LEC dominance. Caps+Rekkles are too strong together and teams outside of Rogue don’t really possess the mechanical faculties to deal with them; and even Rogue have their weaknesses in the support role. Mikyx+Rekkles are too powerful together. My secondary choice is Tactical… do your best to get Rekkles, Tactical has shown insanely high highs, but I don’t like where he’s at right now.

Alternatives to consider: Tactical ($7,000)

Support

Mikyx ($5,600)

Kaiser has been having a meteoric resurgence as of late, and I have a ton of respect for him but I can’t in good faith say he’s been playing better than LIMIT or Mikyx. MAD got solid wins out versus Rogue, but I really do not think it’s indicative of anything greater, whereas despite G2 needing 5 games to stamp out S04 is a bit concerning, I do think S04 is the real deal, as we’ve seen in the flashes from regular season. Mikyx is a great support, and don’t let LIMIT also being a fantastic support deter you from cashing in on the weekend. CoreJJ is another great choice, and he’s one of the only Liquid players I certainly recommend alongside their aforementioned solo laners.

Alternatives to consider: CoreJJ ($5,400)

Team

Team Liquid ($4,800)

I choose Liquid for the team because even though it’s less likely they’ll win relative to G2 (but, I still expect them to), I value the G2 Esports spots tremendously. I think TL’s win will be the accomplishment of a few critical chinks in Cloud9’s armor, whereas G2 will be more of a team effort, hence the team pick.

Alternatives to consider: G2 Esports ($5,200)

Stacks:

Alphari & Jensen

TL’s solo laners have a nice time versus C9. Fudge will get clapped by Alphari and his insanely strong laning phase, whereas Perkz will not be capable of significantly punishing Jensen before he hits his items and coordinates with his team better in teamfights. Curiously, I feel like Cloud9 have had a rough time in the later game as far as map movements, and I think that, combined with TL’s powerful early game, will run over C9.

Rekkles & Caps

These two are the GOATs of the LEC since Perkz left. Caps and Rekkles joining forces after ditching FNC is a fantastic redemption arc and I think G2 have a chance to take a win at MSI, even versus powerful teams like RNG or EDG, and Damwon Kia or a powered up T1. I have faith, because these two are amongst the best in the world.

Mikyx & Jankos

Kaiser and Elyoya are tougher opponents for these two, but they do have an advantage: they know how to play to their win condition: Caps and Rekkles! Getting carried is a good talent to have, and I think these two are great at facilitating G2’s main carries. I don’t think they’ll have great games, but I do think they’ll be stable players and not as fickle as their counterparts across the pond.

Top Picks: Caps, Rekkles, Alphari

Finally, while I usually prefer hyping up multiple carry picks, Alphari is just an insane outlier. He is capable of crushing any top laner in the LCS just in laning phase alone aside from maybe Impact, and his jungler in Santorin is willing to help secure his lane. Rekkles and Caps are no brainers against Carzzy and Humanoid, too.

Top Value: Jensen, CoreJJ, Alphari

TL is underrated, not much else to say. These three are their more consistent members: Tactical’s Tristana-Malphite ults have made me nervous about leaning on him too heavily, and while Santorin has looked way better lately, I am reserved about him due to the fact that I think he can be carried hard by his team at points, and just be less of an impact on the game overall.