Below is a breakdown of Monday’s four-game NHL DFS slate followed by example lineups. Please note that pivots in the lineups are geared more towards GPP contests.
Teams to Target
The four favorites in tonight’s games all opened as at least -155 favorites. It’s no surprise given how large the favorites are that the four teams with above average matchups per my own matchup stat are the four favored teams. That means it’s likely to be an extremely chalky night. Of the four favorites, the Avalanche have the lowest implied goal total and the worst matchup per my matchup stat, so they’re the favorite to throw out in the interest of narrowing options, though you might consider having a piece of them somewhere if playing multiple lineups.
The biggest favorite is Washington at -220 at home against Columbus. Columbus does not present any obvious individual matchups to target or avoid, and Washington’s second line is overpriced on both sites, which makes Washington’s first line the easy pick here. Nicklas Backstrom will return tonight and will reclaim his spot centering the top line and will likely slide right back on to the top PP unit. He’s a bit pricey on FD but is priced well on DK. Wingers Alex Ovechkin and Tom Wilson are both priced well on FD, but Wilson is overpriced on DK. Defenseman John Carlson plays plenty with that line at even strength and plays on the top PP unit.
The downside to the Washington matchup is that the Blue Jackets are unquestionably a better-than-average defensive team, but they have the worst team save percentage among teams playing tonight. The downside to Tampa Bay’s matchup with the Islanders is exactly the opposite. The Isles have the fourth best team save percentage, but they rank top five in most scoring chances and most high danger scoring chances allowed at even strength.
All of New York’s lines are better than average in terms of goals allowed per 60 at even strength but below average in terms of expected goals allowed per 60 (thanks to the goaltending, obviously). That means no Bolt is excluded as an option due to matchup. Brayden Point is centering Nikita Kucherov and both are playing on the top unit. Both are also priced better on FD, so that would be the spot to use them. Steven Stamkos is centering Tyler Johnson, and both are priced very well on DK, making them a good mini-stack option there. Carter Verhaeghe is the third member of that line, and they could be stacked in GPPs given that the Point/Kuch combo likely draws more ownership. Defenseman Victor Hedman skates with the Point line the most at even and with Point/Kucherov on the top PP unit. UPDATE: Tyler Johnson is out tonight, and Yanni Gourde will take his spot on Stamkos' wing. Gourde is under 3K on DK which is the site where I like the Stamkos line.
Boston is facing an Ottawa team that is somewhat below average defensively and somewhat below average in net. The matchup is better for the B’s if Craig Anderson starts in net, but it’s still a plus matchup if Anders Nilsson gets the nod. But because the B’s are on the road and because the Sens are a slightly worse matchup overall compared to the Jackets and Isles, we’re less inclined to pay up for Boston’s top liners. Moreover, Ottawa’s top line centered by Jean-Gabriel Pageau has noticeably better defensive numbers than the rest of the team, and they’re going to draw BOS1 tonight. Ottawa’s last home game was actually against Boston, and the Pageau line got BOS1 and held them to one combined point. UPDATE: Nilsson gets the start tonight.
Value Plays
Just because we’re not on Boston’s top line doesn’t mean we’re out on B’s altogether. Well, assuming FanDuel doesn’t correct its pricing error of Jake DeBrusk. As of this writing, DeBrusk is priced at $540 which is an obvious typo as the minimum price for forwards on FD is $3,000. Presumably this error will get corrected, but if FD lets it stand, DeBrusk is a must-play in any contest. UPDATE: DeBrusk's price will remain at $540 tonight.
As for actual values with legitimate price tags, Alex Killorn is an excellent value on DK at only $3,300. Killorn plays on the third line but plays on Tampa’s talented top PP unit. Killorn will take up 9.3-percent of the cap on FD but only 6.6-percent of the cap on DK. Another good value on DK is Cam Atkinson. Atkinson is unquestionably having a down year so far with only 16 points in 29 games, but that can result in value on DK where the pricing model is much more sensitive to recent performance. Atkinson is a full $2,000 cheaper on DK and will take up 2.8-percent less of the cap there.
Going back to FD, Josh Anderson is a nice value there. He has either a top-six or top-nine role depending on how you classify Columbus’ lines, and he currently has a spot on their top PP unit. That’s excellent usage for a guy with a price tag at the minimum. Anderson is actually a good value on DK as well it’s just that he’s not the best value on the site.
On the blue line, Seth Jones and Michal Kempny are the value picks on FD. Jones is $200 cheaper on FD than DK despite the cap being higher there, and he’s the Columbus defenseman that has played the most on the power play in their last three. Kempny does not see PP work, but he is only $200 over the minimum and plays on the top pair, which means he plays plenty with the top line at even. On DK we’ll give you a minimum priced punt play since there’s not a DeBrusk or minimum priced Anderson there. New York’s Scott Mayfield is priced at the minimum and is playing 19-plus minutes per game in his last 10 with five points in that stretch.
Goalies
Braden Holtby has been confirmed as the goalie for Washington, and he is my top projected goalie of the slate. He has an above average shots faced projection as the Blue Jackets lead all teams on this slate in shots on goal per game. He’s also an obvious cash game option as the Caps are the biggest favorite of the slate.
There isn’t really a better cheaper option for cash games than Holtby on DK as all four goalies of the favored teams are $8,000 or more, but whoever starts in net for Colorado will be a good cash option on FD. Philipp Grubauer pulled a hamstring on Saturday and may not be able to go tonight. If not, it will be Pavel Francouz. Either way, they’re in play in cash on FD with a price tag under 8K (no other goalie from a favored team is $8,500 or less) and the Avs opening as a -155-home favorite. Colorado’s goalie and Holtby are the best options for FD GPPs as well. UPDATE: Grubauer will dress tonight but will backup Francouz.
Over on DK it’s Holtby in cash and David Rittich in GPPs. As mentioned, Colorado is the easiest favorite to disqualify from considering (though we’ll eat crow when MacKinnon and Co. go off). But if that holds true, we should also consider the goalie facing them as a contrarian play. Rittich ranks 19th among 62 qualified goalies in Goals Saved Above Average, and he is the second cheapest projected goalie of the slate on DK.