Below is a breakdown of Friday’s three-game NHL DFS slate followed by example lineups. Please note that the pivots in the lineups are intended to skew more toward GPP plays.
Teams to Target
Unfortunately, the teams I like tonight line up with the Vegas chalk. We’ll get to some contrarian options below, but the obvious teams to target are Boston and Edmonton. The Bruins are -240 favorites in Detroit, and the Oilers are -160 home favorites against New Jersey. With Boston being the largest favorite of the slate by far and with Edmonton’s game being the only one with an over/under above six goals, these teams have the highest implied goal totals of the slate. The teams they are facing are also the best fantasy matchups for opposing skaters on this slate per my matchup stat.
Boston’s top line is arguably the best line in the game, so they’re sure to see heavy ownership as a huge favorite on such a short slate. They’re all more affordable on FD than DK, which would be the site to stack them if you’re so inclined. The only price tag for any of the top liners that’s outright too high is for Patrice Bergeron on DK. Torey Krug and Peter Cehlarik were the men practicing with the top liners on the top power play unit yesterday, so they can be cheaper ways to get exposure to the top line.
Speaking of Cehlarik, he’s also playing up on the second line and is an excellent value as he is minimum priced on both sites. His second line, which also features David Krejci and Danton Heinen, is appealing as they’ll miss the matchup with Detroit’s top line. Detroit’s top line is their best in the possession game, and they take on opposing top lines in home games (not that that’s much of a reason to be concerned about BOS1).
Edmonton’s top line is obviously another line you want to try and get some exposure to, particularly in cash games. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are essentially the same price, and you’d rather pay up for McDavid if you’re picking between them. Zack Kassian plays on the top line along with them but does not join them on the top PP unit. He’s only 4K on each site, so he could be mini-stacked with either of the studs to offset their cost. Defenseman Darnell Nurse plays with the top line at even, and he is one of the better values of the slate on both sites.
Again, the second line for a chalk team has appeal. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins centers that line and is priced noticeably well on DK at only $4,700. James Neal plays on his wing, and both play on the top PP unit with the studs, which makes them an appealing and not super-expensive mini-stack option. D-man Oscar Klefbom plays on that top PP unit, and his pair plays the most with RNH’s line at even.
Value Plays
Before we get to some contrarian options/stacks, let’s give you a few one-off salary relief options.
While we’re not wild about the Devils as a road underdog on the second half of a back-to-back, the matchup with the Oilers is not prohibitive. One of the top values per my projections is New Jersey third-liner Blake Coleman. He does not see PP work, but he does play a lot at even strength (and presumably on the penalty kill) as he is averaging 16 minutes per game in his last 10. He’s not far above the minimum on either site if you need pure salary relief. Remember that Cehlarik fits this bill as well.
On the blue line, Tyler Myers could save you some coin with price tags under 4K on both sites. He works on the second PP unit as opposed to the first, but his pair does play the most with Vancouver’s top line in road games. Myers plays a healthy amount of minutes averaging over 21 per game on the year. Alexander Edler is Myers’ D partner and thus also plays with Vancouver’s top line at even if you happen to be looking for a defenseman at the top end of the price range who isn’t a Bruin or Oiler.
Moving on to contrarian stack options, nothing is more contrarian tonight than Detroit as a +200 underdog. Their top line is way underpriced on DK, so they should be easy to roster and have low ownership. That’s Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha and Tyler Bertuzzi, with Larkin and Mantha being particularly well priced. That said, Boston is the one true bad matchup for opposing skaters tonight, and Larkin’s line is going to see a lot of the Bergeron line.
In the alternative, Winnipeg’s second liners are all priced well on DK. With Bryan Little out, the Jets have moved Blake Wheeler off the top line wing and have him centering the second line between Nikolaj Ehlers and Jack Roslovic. Wheeler is the only one of the three on the top PP unit, but the wingers do work on the second PP unit.
New Jersey’s top line is a bit underpriced on both sites, though a bit more so on FD. While they’re likely to take on McDavid’s line, that’s not the most intimidating matchup like, say, the Bergeron line is. Edmonton’s top line can produce offensively, but they’re not the strongest defensive line. They are below average in Corsi For percentage, scoring chances allowed per 60 and expected goals allowed per 60 (all at 5v5, score and venue adjusted). Nico Hischier was centering Taylor Hall and Kyle Palmieri at practice yesterday, and the wingers were working on the top PP unit. Sami Vatanen is the D-man on that top PP unit, and his pair plays the most with the top line at even in away games.
Goalies
Picking a goalie is relatively simple tonight. It’s Tuukka Rask if you can afford it and/or want the chalk, and it’s Connor Hellebuyck if you’re going cheaper. Rask is an obvious option with the B’s being such a big favorite. Hellebuyck should see plenty of rubber as the Jets rank seventh in shots on goal allowed per game, and the Canucks rank sixth in shots per game. The Jets are a slight favorite, and Hellebuyck is under 8K on both sites.