DFS MLB Stacks: September 3
Brett Talley pores over all of the statistics, splits, and matchups to uncover the very best DFS MLB Stacks for today's contests.
Below are stacks to consider for Monday’s MLB DFS action
The Astros have the highest projected run total of the seven-game early slate with a 5.3 projected total against Minnesota with right-hander Kyle Gibson on the mound. The next highest projected total on that slate is Boston at 4.7 runs, so Houston is definitely the chalk.
Gibson has typical splits, so lefties in the Houston lineup have a nice matchup today. Tony Kemp has a 131 wRC+ vs. RHP this season, and switch-hitter Marwin González is much better from the left side. Of their studs, Alex Bregman and José Altuve have been very good without the platoon advantage this season with wRC+ marks vs. RHP of 151 and 140, respectively.
For the evening, five-game slate, it’s Arizona that has the highest projected total, and they have the highest projected total of the entire day at 5.6 runs. The next highest projected total on that slate is the Angels at 5.3 runs. Arizona will host the Padres with right-hander Bryan Mitchell on the mound.
Mitchell has a 7.08 ERA and 6.92 FIP in just under 50 innings this season. He also doesn’t have typical splits, so hitters from both sides will work for D’Backs. That means the five guys they have who have been more than 15 percent better than league average against right-handed pitching are the guys to build around depending on who is in the lineup. Those five are: David Peralta , Paul Goldschmidt , Eduardo Escobar , A.J. Pollock and Daniel Descalso .
Not the Chalk
The Cubs only have the fifth-highest projected run total of the early slate. it. The Cubs will be in Milwaukee facing right-hander Zach Davies . Among all of today’s probable starters, Davies has the second highest hard contact rate allowed this season, and he allows a lot of contact with only a 16.3 percent strikeout rate. He has a 5.23 ERA and 4.79 xFIP in eight starts.
Davies really struggles against lefties as he has barely struck out more lefties than he has walked this season. Antony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Daniel Murphy are all lefties, and switch-hitters Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist have been better from the left side this season. In addition to all those lefties, Javier Báez could be included in a Cubs stack with a 133 wRC+ against same-handed pitching this season.
We’re going deep with this one as the O’s have the sixth lowest projected run total of the entire day, but they could be a sneaky option on the evening slate. They’re in Seattle who will send right-hander Erasmo Ramírez to the mound, and Ramirez profiles most closely to Davies among pitchers going on the evening slate. Ramirez is the only starter going today with a higher hard contact rate allowed than Davies, and Ramirez is allowing even more contact than Davies with a slightly lower 15.4 percent strikeout rate.
Ramirez has basically no split this season, so hitters from both sides of the plate will work from Baltimore. Switch-hitting youngster Cedric Mullins has been their best hitter vs. RHP this season, albeit in limited work, with a 151 wRC+ vs. RHP in 62 PA. Jonathan Villar has been Baltimore’s best fantasy producer over the last month with five home runs and nine steals in that stretch. Trey Mancini has also been good lately hitting .309 with four home runs in the last 15 days. Those three have been in the top four of the order in each of Baltimore’s last three games, all against right-handed starters. Adam Jones likely joins them in the top four, and he’s been slightly above average against righties this season.