DFS MLB Stacks: July 3
Brett Talley takes a look at the MLB match-ups and picks a few spots where you may want to stack hitters in today's DFS contests.
Below are stacks to consider for Tuesday’s MLB DFS action.
You know Coors is always the chalk when there’s a game there, but it’s even chalkier than normal today. The Rockies-Giants game opened with a whopping over/under of 12 runs, which makes sense when the starters have ERAs of 6.23 (as a reliever) and 4.45 this season. That reliever is Antonio Senzatela who will be making his first start of the season, and his opponent is Chris Stratton who has the fifth worst xFIP among tonight’s probable starters. Both pitchers are right-handed.
San Francisco is a slight underdog on the road, but they seem to be the better stack option. The Giants rank 10th in park-adjusted offense against right-handed pitching while the Rox rank dead last. The Giants also have two guys who have been at least 40 percent better than average against right-handers this season, while Colorado’s best hitter against righties has a wRC+ of only 124.
Those two Giants are Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford with Belt being the more imposing of the two with his 171 wRC+ and .281 ISO vs. RHP. Belt tends to hit second, but Crawford could be anywhere from fourth to sixth in the order. If he’s further down the order, you can connect the stack by using Andrew McCutchen and/or Buster Posey , who have both been better than average without the platoon advantage this season. It should also be noted that the typical eighth hitter in the lineup, Joe Panik , is 4-for-10 with two home runs and a double in his career against Senzatela.
As for the Rox, Nolan Arenado is their hottest hitter right now with eight home runs in the last 15 days, and Gerardo Parra is their best hitter against righties with a 124 wRC+ against them. If those two are near enough in the order to each other, they could be mini-stacked or connected by one other player in a small, three-man stack. It’s hard to go with a full four- or five-man stack when Colorado faces a right-handed starter.
The only other game that opened with an over/under in double digits was the Houston at Texas game. Texas will send Austin Bibens-Dirkx to the mound whose 0.77 ERA in his last two starts is a complete mirage. His six strikeouts compared to five walks in 11.2 innings over those two starts along with a hard-hit rate allowed that is over 50 percent is plenty of evidence that Bibens-Dirkx isn’t actually pitching well. This game is also in Dallas, not Houston, where there is no roof and the heat and humidity allow for hitter-friendly conditions that Houston’s oft enclosed stadium does not.
You know Houston’s offense is great, but let’s go through the numbers quickly. They rank 2nd in wRC+ for the season, second in wRC+ vs. RHP and first in wRC+ over the last 30 days. José Altuve and Alex Bregman have been 65 and 42 percent better than league average against righties, respectively, and Evan Gattis leads the team in ISO vs. RHP at .255. All three were at least 31 percent better than league average in June. They’ll likely hit 2-3-4 or 2-3-5 in the order. You can add pieces around them as necessary.
Not the Chalk
This is not the first time we’ve mentioned this here, but the Reds are one of two teams that has been hitting remotely close to as well as the Astros have over the last 30 days. The Reds and Dodgers have 121 team wRC+ marks over that span, which isn’t far from Houston’s 124 mark.
As a -190 favorite in a game that opened with an over/under of 9.5, the Reds aren’t exactly an off-the-board pick. But with Coors and the Astros being such obvious plays, Reds ownership might not be sky high. Cleveland could also draw some ownership as they opened as the biggest favorite of the night at -220, and the Yankees against a lefty, against whom they have the best wRC+ in the league, could also draw some ownership away from Cincy.
The Reds will have the pleasure of facing Lucas Giolito who has the highest xFIP among tonight’s starters this season and the second highest over the last 30 days. Giolito is a right-hander, and the Reds have five hitters who have been at least 15 percent better than average against righties including three that have been at least 40 percent better than average. Eugenio Suárez , Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett lead the way with Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker not far behind them.
Chicago White Sox
Let’s stay in the same game for a more contrarian stack option tonight as the Sox will be in Cincinnati to face the Reds with Anthony DeSclafani on the hill for Cincy. DeSclafani is a guy who leans slightly toward the fly ball end of the spectrum and struggles to limit hard contact. DeSclafani’s 12.9 percent soft contact rate generated is the fourth worst among tonight’s starters. You can do the math here, but hard-hit fly balls mean upside potential for a stack.
The Sox don’t offer a singular guy that is either smoking hot right now or that has demolished right-handed pitching this season. However, they do have five guys who have been above average against right-handed pitching this season with an ISO of at least .178. The league average ISO is .157, so they have five guys who can certainly hit the ball out of the park in a matchup that could lend itself to homers.
Those five hitters, in order of their wRC+ vs. RHP, are Matt Davidson , Yoan Moncada , José Abreu , Yolmer Sánchez and Tim Anderson . Anderson has arguably been their hottest hitter of late, though Avisail García , who has fewer than 100 PA against righties this season, is working on a 10-game hitting streak which includes four home runs in his last seven and four multi-hit games in his last five. All these guys are options but build the most connected stack you can from those six that works from a positional and salary perspective for your roster.