Welcome to Week 5 of the NFL season. Time is flying as it always does during football and it’s crazy to think we’re already over a quarter of the way there. We have a fun Thursday night showdown on our hands between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks. It’s the highest total on the board at 49.5, with the Seahawks just a slight 1.5 point favorite. It’ll be interesting to see how these teams react after the Rams defense was obliterated and the Seahawks just dominated. Let’s dive right in! 

Editors Note: This week we have TWO writers making picks in Austyn Varney AND Steve Pimental. Each pick will be highlighted with their respective names in front of them.

Austyn's Over/Under

Passing yards: Jared Goff -9.5 over Russell Wilson  

The Seahawks have been public with their ideal game plan of limiting Russell Wilson to 25-30 passes a game. They’re obviously far from concrete in that, adjusting to the game and throwing 35+ times two of the four weeks. Back at home against a run defense that’s struggled, I expect the Seahawks to hammer Chris Carson early and often. The Rams don’t have such reservations. Goff has thrown the ball 38+ times in three of the four weeks and the Seahawks are worse vs the pass than the run. Goff should be able to throw for over 300 yards again and I don’t think Wilson will get there. 

Receiving yards: Cooper Kupp -7.5 over Tyler Lockett

If we’re going with Goff, we want the correlation play in Cooper Kupp . Four weeks isn’t necessarily a big enough sample size, but it’s what we’re working with. Kupp has been over 100 yards in all but one week, compared to Lockett, who’s been over 100 yards just once. Both of these guys are target hogs, but the Rams are throwing the ball more and Kupp has a higher catch rate on his targets. If you’re going Goff, Kupp is the easy pick. 

Receptions: Robert Woods +.5 over Brandin Cooks

This is extremely close. If you have a strong feeling of Cooks over Woods, I wouldn’t fight you on it. I just think the extra .5 catch is worth something and Robert Woods just saw more targets in a game than he ever has in a Rams uniform (15). We likely won’t see a repeat of that game for years, but it doesn’t take away the fact that Goff honed in on Woods early and often. He was extremely sure-handed, catching 13 of 15 balls, which is another reason I think Goff goes back to the well. The volume is trending the right way for Woods and has been slightly sporadic for Cooks.

Over/Under - 3x

Jared Goff over 280.5 passing yards

This Seahawks pass defense leaves a lot to be desired. Andy Dalton threw for over 400 yards in Seattle, before injuring Big Ben in Week 2 and facing off with backup Bridgewater in Week 3. Kyler Murray had a terrible week, but it had less to do with the Seattle defense and more to do with the Cardinals’ lack of protection and gameplan. Goff and the Rams will be prepared, and their biggest opponent is the clock. 

Russell Wilson under 270.5 passing yards

If we’re assuming the Seahawks want to run the ball, it’s going to be hard to get over 280 passing yards against this defense by accident. Wilson has always been uber-efficient, but he’s fine just managing the game if that’s what’s necessary. If you think the Rams defense is going to struggle once again, then take the over on both of these and hit the road running. I just see Chris Carson being the focal point in tonight’s game plan. 

Steve's Over/Under

Jared Goff 280.5 Passing Yards: UNDER

Goff has topped 280.5 passing yards twice this season, and they were both at home. This offense isn’t nearly as potent as it was last season, and I don’t expect a great game from Goff at Seattle. That being said, there are two problems with taking the Under. The first is that Goff doesn’t have to be that good if he is going to throw the ball 38 times, which he has done in three of his four games this season. The other problem is that the Rams leaned heavily on Todd Gurley Sunday in lieu of the outside zone runs they have relied on in years past. If Gurley gets 11 targets again, it may be tough to hold Goff down. That being said, Seattle has held its last three opponents to under 240 passing yards, and I think they make it four in a row.

Russell Wilson 270.5 Fantasy Points: UNDER

Wilson averaged 353 passing yards in Weeks 3 and 4, only to be held to 240 yards passing at Arizona. He has thrown for fewer than 200 passing yards in four straight games against the Rams, and he hasn’t topped 270.5 passing yards against them since they moved to Los Angeles. I doubt Wilson will have to throw a ton, and I suspect the Rams will be successful at limiting his big plays.

Reception Collection - 2-5x

Austyn's Pick

If we go with 17.5 out of these three, that’s six catches a piece. If one guy can get up to 10, we only need a combined eight catches out of the remaining two. Cooper Kupp has 11 and 9 catches in the last two games himself, with Robert Woods picking up 13 and 3. As for Lockett, he has double-digit catches in two of four weeks and a target share of over 30% in each of the last three. I just think the targets are rather concentrated here and we know the Rams are going to be throwing the ball at least 40 times. Wilson may not throw as much, but he’s going to Lockett most of the time he does drop back. 

Steve's Pick

Cooper Kupp , Tyler Lockett and Brandin Cooks over 17.5 receptions

Kupp, Cooks and Woods have topped 17.5 receptions in each of the last two games, and they had 17 in Week one. It’s against the rules to have all three, but you could easily make the case for Woods over Cooks. We just watched Chris Godwin and Mike Evans run roughshod over the Rams secondary, so I am willing to take my chances with Tyler Lockett , who has double-digit receptions in two games this season. Again, I’m taking the conservative route targeting 17.5 receptions, but I wouldn’t be surprised if these three top 22.5.

Longshot - 33x

Austyn's Pick

There’s nothing like going for 33x payout on just a few bucks. I’ve hit this a few times, and the rush is exhilarating. The toughest two here are Cooks and Woods. Cooks could very well go over 70 yards, but I think that’s left to Kupp and Woods this week. I also think Woods gets 5-7 targets and pulls in four or five of them.

Rapid Fire

Steve's Picks

Fantasy Points: Russell Wilson vs. Jared Goff +2.5

Fantasy Points: Tyler Lockett +0.5 vs. Cooper Kupp

Goff hasn’t topped 14.1 fantasy points in either of his road games, and I suspect he will have to be better than that to beat Russell Wilson. Wilson has at least 14.3 fantasy points in all four games this season, and so long as Seattle doesn’t get up big early, I think he’ll throw enough to top Goff comfortably.

As we have seen this season, when Russell Wilson completes a lot of passes in one game, at least 10 usually go to Tyler Lockett. Lockett has the advantage in big-play ability and probably in the red zone as well, so if Kupp doesn’t have significantly more receptions than Lockett, Lockett should win.