CFB DFS Playbook & Example Lineups: Week 2 (FRIDAY)

Austyn Varney

College Football DFS Playbook

Published: Sep 06, 2019

Games and Vegas Lines

() = implied total

Wake Forest (36.5) @ Rice (19.5) - WF -18 - 57 O/U

William & Mary (5) @ Virginia (39.5) - UV -34.5 - 44.5 O/U

Marshall (22.5) @ Boise State (33.5) - BSU -11 - 56 O/U

(DK Only) - Sacramento State (15) @ Arizona State (48.5) - ASU -35.5 - 63.5 O/U

Quarterback

Jamie Newman - Wake Forest - FD $10,100 / DK $8,400

This is an interesting slate for just a three-gamer. DraftKings has spiced things up and added a fourth, and there is a lot more to consider than on an average small CFB slate. Let’s start at quarterback. If you’re looking to pay up, Jamie Newman and Bryce Perkins are your top two options and both are firmly in play. Wake Forest struggled with Utah State, but Jamie Newman impressed with 400+ yards and three scores.

Rice was pretty stout on defense last week, but they weren’t challenged much through the air with just eight pass attempts from Kelvin Hopkins and Army. In 2018, Army struggled against the pass, ranking 103rd in the nation with with 451 yards allowed per game. Wake Forest is expected to put up nearly 40 points in this game and Newman shouldn’t have any trouble throwing for another three plus touchdowns. There also isn’t much of a blowout risk with this porous Wake Forest defense.

Bryce Perkins - Virginia - FD $10,300 / DK $8,000

Bryce Perkins struggled last week, passing for just 181 yards and running for just 44. It wasn’t a typical Bryce Perkins game we’ve become used to, but the Pittsburgh defense is solid and they play just as as slow as Virginia. They ran more plays than Virginia, and held the ball for just as long. We won’t see that this week. Virginia is going to demolish William & Mary and it just comes down to how much damage Perkins can do before we see a backup.

With his potential on the ground, I actually do think Perkins has more upside than Newman if he can score a couple on the ground and match them through the air. I suspect we see the backups once Virginia gets into the 40s. In cash games, I lean Newman for the same reason as last week. If Taulapapa or the Cavalier defense scores, it directly takes away from Perkins if William & Mary never score. Newman will see four full quarters and will be my cash game stud.

Jayden Daniels - Arizona State - DK $6,700

This is a DraftKings only play, as the two sites want to make things as difficult as possible on us. Arizona State is projected to score nearly 50 points, so we certainly need to be targeting them on DraftKings. They’re also not an established offense, so we don’t have to worry about the starters getting benched in a blowout. The Sun Devils will take as much successful gameplay as they can get before getting to the meat and potatoes of their schedule.

Sacramento State is coming off of a 77-19 victory vs Southern Georgia, so it’s hard to know exactly what we’re looking at here. The defense is obviously bad, giving up 500+ yards to FBS opponents in 2018. Their offense is surely electric, but a real defense should hold them in check without much trouble. Jayden Daniels finished with 26 fantasy points in week 1 and this match-up is incrementally easier. The only issue on DK is we have a RB that is priced wrong. It allows us to pay up elsewhere, and I’ve fit Perkins or Newman in every lineup so far without much issue. I also want to play Benjamin on DK, so will have my exposure to this team.

Consider - Henry Bachmeier (BSU), Isaiah Green (MRSHL), Kevin Thompson (SSU)

Running Back

Robert Mahone - Boise State - FD $10,200 / DK $4,700

The best running back on this four-game slate is priced as RB10 on DraftKings. Anything under 100% is under owned. Mahone touched the ball 25 times against FSU Saturday, putting together 162 yards and two scores on his way to 30-plus fantasy points. He was announced the starter of this backfield pretty late in camp, which is the only excuse I can find for DK pricing him this low.

The Marshall Thundering Herd will head into Boise State on Friday as 11 point underdogs with the Broncos implied to score 33.5 points. That’s a perfect game script for Mahone, who will be fed the ball early to get the lead and fed it often to hold it. Marshall ranked 88th against the run last season, and lose two starting defensive linemen. On DraftKings, Mahone is a must play. On FanDuel, he’s the top running back on the slate.

Eno Benjamin - Arizona State - DK $9,600

With Robert Mahone so cheap on DraftKings, there will be plenty of money to spend elsewhere and Eno Benjamin will be hard to get away from. Like I mentioned, Arizona State has the highest implied total on the slate at 48.5 points. They will have the lead early, and Benjamin will be fed 20-plus times as a conservative estimate.

Sacramento State allowed 180-plus yards per game on the ground last season and I’ll be honest, I don’t know enough about Sacramento State to say whether or not they’ve improved or declined. I’m going to make a wild guess that they didn’t acquire any game-changing defensive linemen. All jokes aside, the ASU offense runs through Benjamin and this game will be a fine-tuner before they take on 19th ranked Michigan State the following week. Benjamin and Mahone have similar upside, and I’ll have 100% of both on DraftKings.

Wayne Taulapapa - Virginia - FD $9,100 / DK $5,100

There are four (three on FD) teams that are clear underdogs, so that takes half of the running backs off the board. It’s not a guaranteed science to ignore underdog RB’s, but these few teams are barely expected to score and will be playing from behind all night. You can play Walter or King in a tournament, but it’s nothing more than a tournament play.

That leaves us with Virginia and Wake Forest. Cade Carney and Wayne Taulapapa are both in play, with the ladder being a bit cheaper. Virginia shouldn’t have any issues on the ground against William & Mary and it feels like at least one guaranteed score for Taulapapa, with the upside to run it in a couple more times. The pricing on FD is a lot sharper and we have less options, so play there if you think you know more than the field. That’s our goal here.

Consider - Cade Carney (WF), Aston Walter (RICE), Tyler King (MRSHL)

Wide Receiver

Khalil Shakir - Boise State - FD $9,000 / DK $5,100

Another brutal mispricing by DraftKings. Khalil Shakir emerged as the clear number one option last week, seeing a team high 12 targets and reeling in eight of them for 78 yards and a score. CT Thomas and Akilian Butler both saw nine targets and are great plays on FanDuel, where cheaper. Shakir is just insanely priced on DraftKings and won’t need to do much to pay off value.

We haven’t touched on the Boise State passing game yet, but that’s only because we’ll be playing a ton of Robert Mahone. On FanDuel, where Mahone is tough to play, Bachmeier and this passing game are worth a look. Marshall was average against the pass in 2018, ranking 74th and allowing 240 yards per game. Khalil Shakir is still listed as a co-starter, but he was loved by Bachmeier in week 1 and is a great play on both sites.

Sage Surratt - Wake Forest - FD $9,800 / DK $8,200

This Wake Forest passing game looks pretty lethal. I know the Utah State defense isn’t the greatest, but the weapons shone through in week 1. At wideout, Surratt and Kendall Hinton led the charge. Both are elite plays this week and will be popular on both sites. Scotty Washington and Steven Claude are two cheaper options that have a ton of talent. Washington is a pro prospect if he can stop dropping the ball.

You then have Jack Freudenthal at TE, who was a big part of the offensive attack. If you’re playing Jamie Newman, I would find a way to get two of his weapons into your lineup. Sage Surratt is still the clear leader of this group and I expect him to be one of the top wide receivers in all of college football come season end. DraftKings did get his price right, so we hopefully won’t see over 50% on him. On FanDuel, he’s not easy to fit and should be about 20%. Hinton is more of a possession guy that is a lock in cash games to produce.

Joe Reed - Virginia - FD $8,000 / DK $5,600

Hasise Dubois and Joe Reed are the only two wideouts you need to worry about for Virginia. Terrell Jana could eventually be a target, and so could Tanner Cowley, but I’d like to see more out of them before I deploy in a blowout. Hasise Dubois is the safe option of these guys, as the clear-cut number one possession receiver. This is who Perkins will go to on third downs. You can play him in any format. I just don’t love the price.

Joe Reed is a high-upside receiver that is as fast as anybody on the field. He was injured all of last season, but was fought over by Virginia and Virginia Tech in 2016. He’s 6 foot 2 with great hands and has as much breakaway speed as you’ll find in college. Check out his 247 profile and you’ll see exactly what I mean. He’s cheaper than Dubois and I see just as much upside, if not more. Bryce Perkins can sling it deep and my bold prediction of the week is Joe Reed catches a long one.

Frank Darby - Arizona State - DK $5,400

Brandon Aiyuk is a guy I was all over in week one and it paid off huge. He reeled in four catches for 150 plus yards and a score. Frank Darby is just as good as Aiyuk, if not better. Sacramento State is no powerhouse, but they are aware of what Aiyuk did last week and I suspect Darby is rather left alone on the outside. I still like both of these guys, so am by no means saying Sac State is going to scheme a WR out of the game plan. I just don’t think they’ll have any focus on Darby, who can score twice and go for 100+ yards.

There won’t necessarily be a replacement for N’Keal Harry, as the Sun Devils won’t throw as much and will run the offense through Eno Benjamin. However, Jayden Daniel can throw the rock and I wouldn’t be surprised to see 250 yards through the air in this one. Again, the Sun Devils hold the highest team total on the slate and you’ll want exposure. I lean Frank Darby over Brandon Aiyuk because of the price and expected ownership, but both are in play.

Pierre Williams - Sacramento State - DK $6,100

Sacramento State scored 77 points last week, so don’t expect nearly the same production as you see in these guys week 1 box scores. With that being said, Pierre Williams caught three touchdowns in week one and Sac State will be playing from behind all game long. Arizona State isn’t known for their defense, and I would say this team is at the very least capable of throwing the ball after going 14-for-20 for 303 yards and four scores in week one.

Pierre Williams is no slouch. He was offered by Fresno State and Nevada two years ago, and eventually signed with Nevada before eventually transferring to Sacramento State. The point is that he has the measurables to play with these corners. I’d say it’s a lot more likely Williams finds the endzone just once this game, but you never know with them playing from behind an entire game what can happen.

Consider - Kendall Hinton - Scotty Washington - Steven Claude (WF), Hasise Dubois (UV), CT Thomas - Akilian Butler (BOIS)