NFL Weekly Survivor Plays: Week 4
Andy Spiteri brings you his guidelines to help you navigate your Eliminator Pools to make sure you're the lone survivor!
Perfection is what we strive for and I failed to deliver last week. The Chargers’ turnovers and a penalty on a field goal led to 9 points by the Panthers. An almost completed hook and ladder from Keenan Allen to Austin Ekeler would have saved the day but to no avail. My biggest mistake was not going with my instinct of taking the Browns but I listened to my head and not my heart as the Chargers did have a better probability of winning their game. The good thing is that if you’re reading this you either didn’t listen to me and took one of my alternative picks as they all panned out or you’re in a pool with multiple strikes.
Week 4 provides us with many options as there are five home teams that are favored by 7 or more and a road team that is currently the biggest favorite of the week. (Point spreads are as of Wednesday by the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas)
Ravens -13 ½ at Washington
Rams -12 ½ vs. Giants
Chiefs -7 vs. Patriots
49ers -7 vs. Eagles
Bucs -7 vs. Chargers
Packers -7 vs. Falcons
All of these teams have future value so we are going to lose some value when picking one of them. If you want to gain value over the field, Houston has almost no future value and has a 68% percent chance of winning. They are 4 ½ home favorites over the 0-3 Vikings who showed signs of life last week. The Vikings are also dealing with being shut down due to Covid concerns after their game with the Titans. Not sure if I’d take that plunge but it’s an option.
The two popular picks will be the Rams and Ravens. If you are in a pool that you can take a team multiple times, either of these picks should come through easily. The Chiefs dominated the Ravens on Monday and should handle the Patriots at home, but you never know what Coach Belichick has up his sleeve. TB12 and the Bucs will be without Chris Godwin for a few weeks and this could hamper them on offense. The Packers are on a roll and the Falcons just find ways to lose. Check the status of Julio Jones and Russell Gage . If they are both out, huge advantage Packers. The depleted 49ers are home against the even more depleted Eagles who lost Dallas Goedert to a broken ankle and DeSean Jackson is questionable with a hamstring. Carson Wentz has been making poor decisions and if SF doubles Zach Ertz , his choices are severely limited.
Pick of the Week: LA Rams
The Rams are going to be the most popular pick of the week but they don’t have too much value going forward. Next week they travel to Washington which should be a win but don’t have a very favorable matchup after that until week 15 against the Jets. Ride with the masses this week. If you want to go against the masses, the 49ers are going to be very lowly owned and could provide that advantage in the unlikely event of a Rams loss.