Your fantasy football drafts are over, and you anxiously await the start of the NFL season. The email comes from the person you know who runs the “office pool”. It’s time to join your annual survivor pool and you pony up the money to try and be “the last one standing”. If you missed the 2020 Survivor Pool Primer it goes over some basic tenets to follow when deciding which favorite to go with.
The 2020 season offers some unique challenges as we try to map out what to do in Week 1. With the lack of a preseason, there was no glimpse into how team question marks looked. Is the Jets offensive line improved? Do certain players seem healthy? How do teams with new coaching staffs look? These and a thousand other questions have gone unanswered as the only eyes on camps were those of beat reporters.
Week 1 is notoriously tricky from a betting perspective as we always get a few surprises. Last season the heavily favored Eagles failed to cover as the team formerly known as the Redskins scored a last-minute TD. From the survivor pool point of view, it worked out as they were a heavy favorite at home which is our main criterion of who to pick.
There are only three teams that meet our criteria of a home favorite of seven points or more. These teams historically have the highest winning percentage and it greatly increases when the point spread is 10 or more. No one is favored by 10 and that may be due to the hesitation bettors are having to lay that many points on teams they haven’t seen yet.
(All spreads are from the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas as of Wednesday)
Kansas City -9
The Chiefs open their defense of the Super Bowl crown on Thursday against the Texans. They are the biggest favorites of the week and almost reach the 10-point threshold that we look for. Against them is the Thursday night factor although that doesn’t hold for the first week of the season. Are they the safest bet to move you on to next week? Probably, but looking at the entire NFL schedule I noted that Weeks 8 and 11 are going to be tough when it comes to survivor pools. Based on current projections, they will be the best bets in both of those weeks. Should you go chalk and get yourself over to Week 2 or save the Chiefs for later? Already a tough choice in week 1.
Baltimore -8
At home, the Ravens will take on division rivals Cleveland. They are going to challenge the Chiefs for the AFC championship and have seemingly improved themselves over 2019. The additions of JK Dobbins at RB and Malik Harrison and Patrick Queen at LB are expected to solidify the team. Can Lamar Jackson repeat the year he had? Even with some regression, this is a formidable team that should control the ball and limit chances for opposing offenses. Cleveland had a disappointing 2019 and is looking to improve in all areas. They have a dynamic duo at RB, but the play of Baker Mayfield could hold the team back. If Odell Beckham Jr. can overcome his recent injury history, the Browns could be a force on offense. Have they improved enough to take down the Ravens? Baltimore will be a popular pick this week.
San Francisco -7
The NFC champion 49ers will take on the Cardinals in San Francisco and are touchdown favorites. Last year the Niners were 6-2 at home but only 3-4-1 against the spread. They’ve had injuries at wide receiver but hope to have Deebo Samuel ready. Taking on a division opponent is one of our “risks” when it comes to potential upsets. The Cardinals have improved their offense by adding DeAndre Hopkins and Kyler Murray now has a year experience under his belt. On defense, they’ve added first-round pick Isaiah Simmons and signed De’Vondre Campbell at linebacker. This may be a closer game than people think as the Cardinals may be improved against the run.
Indianapolis -8
The Colts travel to Jacksonville and are the biggest road favorites of the week. We know the Jaguars are doing their best to get Trevor Lawrence and this should lead to a road victory for Philip Rivers . The warning signs are it’s an intra divisional game and it’s on the road. I know it’s Jacksonville but the Colts only won 2 games on the road last year. Despite this, the Colts should be high on your radar for this week’s choice.
Other teams to consider:
New England -6 ½ over Miami
Philadelphia -5 ½ at Washington
Buffalo -6 ½ over NYJ
To help decide who to pick let’s go over some win probabilities for each week and see who to project we need to save for later weeks. I am going to list the teams currently with a 70% or greater win probability each week.
Week 1: Baltimore, KC
Week 2: Arizona, TB, Tennessee
Week 3: New England, Indianapolis
Week 4: Baltimore, Dallas
Week 5: Baltimore, Dallas, KC, New England, New Orleans
Week 6: Indianapolis
Week 7: Dallas, New Orleans, Philadelphia
Week 8: KC
Week 9: KC, San Francisco
Week 10: Detroit, Green Bay
Week 11: KC
Week 12: Dallas, Minnesota
Week 13: KC, Minnesota, Pittsburgh
Week 14: Seattle, San Francisco
Week 15: Baltimore, Green Bay, LARams
Week 16: Baltimore, KC, New Orleans
Week 17: Indianapolis, KC, New England, Philadelphia
The first thing you should notice are the weeks where there is only one team listed. For planning purposes, try to save these teams for that week if you can. There is one problem, KC is the sole team in two of those weeks, 8 and 11. If you can hold off on KC until then, you’ll be able to better judge which week to take them right before week 8.
If you see a team listed only once, that is probably the week you want to take them if you “pencil” in a week to week list. Use a pencil only, as you know many factors can change every week.
Each week I’ll also look at the “lesser” teams. Taking a team like Cleveland when they are close to a 70% probability helps you save the “better” teams for other weeks. For instance, Cleveland’s highest win probability comes in week 3 at around 68%. Taking the Browns allows you to save the Patriots and Colts for another week.
Pick of the Week: Buffalo Bills
Yes, it’s an intra divisional game, but the Bills at home over the Adam Gase led Jets is the pick. This is Buffalo’s highest win probability of the season at almost 69% (which tells you that Vegas likes Miami more than the Jets). By picking the Bills, we avoid having to take Kansas City, Baltimore, and San Francisco early. Would taking any of those teams be the wrong move? Of course not, but by using the Bills in week one, you are gaining equity over the field who take the heavy favorites. Can the Jets surprise us? Yes, but the loss of both Jamal Adams and C.J. Mosely on defense will be tough to overcome.
The other strong pick is Indianapolis. If you play in more than one pool, or have multiple entries in one, the Colts should be checked off in them also. The off the radar pick is the Lions. They opened at pick ‘em and now are three point favorites over the Bears in Detroit. It’s a bit risky, but there shouldn’t be many taking them this week and it can give you an advantage in the upcoming weeks with more choices.
Any of the other teams mentioned are worthy of your consideration. Again, it’s risk/reward based on your pool setup and how many take each team. Good luck with week 1 as it’s always a landmine. If you have any questions, feel free to ask on Twitter @gasdoc_spit.