MLB Mock Draft Army - Week 7 Review
Andy Spiteri breaks down the mock drafts that took place this week and examines how the stoppage has impacted ADPs
As I write this it was announced that the number of ICU beds occupied in NY had decreased for the first time. There is hope out there and that is why the Mock Draft Army has continued to march while we are in quarantine. It was a fun week in the chat room as many regulars and several new people joined us. We even had a visit from the @rotobuzzguy on Wednesday and an on air review of the draft by him and the GM on Thursday on SiriusXM.
What I looked at this week were players who the Army was higher on than the NFBC this week and I’m calling them the “What are you smoking?” group as we may need a wakeup call and lower our expectations. The players that were drafted much later than in the NFBC are the “McFly” group as we may need to wake up and look at these players earlier. Now the corollary to this is that MDA is much smarter than the NFBC crowd and we got it right and they didn’t. I use the NFBC as a comparison because they give great access to their ADP and it is easily sortable. The ADP values are for all drafts from 4/6-4/10.
“Hello, McFly” Group
James Paxton, SP NYY - MDA ADP 167 / NFBC ADP 125
I am starting with Paxton as last week I warned that his ADP is going to shoot up. Last week his overall ADP was 159 and his weekly numbers were 132 in the NFBC and 152 in the MDA. This week his NFBC ADP has dropped to 125. The mockers have not caught on yet, well at least some of them. Paxton went in a range from 142 to 198. Two drafts in the 140s and two around 190. Does it happen that people still forget about him? If you are drafting this week as the NFBC winds down some of its contests, make sure you have accurate, up to date rankings. Paxton is going more than 2 rounds earlier on average than what we are seeing in the MDA and in most rankings. He should be considered around the same time as Eduardo Rodríguez , Hyun-Jin Ryu , and Zac Gallen.
Tommy Edman, 2B STL - MDA ADP 155 / NFBC ADP 126
During one of the mocks we started talking about certain players that seemed to be going earlier than before. Edman was one of the names that came up. When I checked his overall numbers on the Fantasy Alarm ADP tracker, they really hadn’t changed much. In February it was 153 and now it’s 146. Edman is a player who gets a boost due to his SB potential. If you look at his projections on Fangraphs, he was only projected to play in about 125 games based on a full season and his other counting stats pale in comparison to others you can get in the same round. He is being taken ahead of Carlos Santana , Kyle Schwarber , and Yuli Gurriel in the NFBC. Edman is a play only if you are short on SBs and why his ADP is where it’s at. You can wait about 2 rounds and get Amed Rosario . Edman is projected on average for 11 HR, 61 R, 52 RBI and 16 SBs compared to Rosario’s 14 HR, 72 R, 65 RBI, and 20 SBs. Maybe this is one that the MDA has right over the NFBC.
Josh James, SP HOU - MDA ADP 271 / NFBC ADP 220
James continues his ascent up draft boards as he is expected to be the Astros 5th starter but also with the expected changes to the schedule, James would be an integral part of the starting rotation even if he lost out on the 5th spot. The probable shortened schedule has changed the value of pitching and James is a benefactor of these changes. His value has relatively increased and this is being proven by his jump in ADP. The MDA is a full 50 picks behind the NFBC making him another one where you will miss out if you wait too long during a draft. He is being chosen in the same neighborhood as Dylan Bundy , Mitch Keller , Caleb Smith and Joey Lucchesi . In February his ADP was 348 so this is a significant rise. I think the Army is sleeping on him with only one mocker, yours truly, taking him at 228 on Tuesday.
The “What Are You Smoking?” Group
Miguel Andújar, 3B NYY - MDA ADP 186 / NFBC ADP 254
I start this group with another Yankee. Andujar’s stock rose early in the spring as both Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge both went down with injuries. With both of them expected to be able to start when the season begins, Andujar is back to his expected super utility role. Cutting into this further is the possible return of Aaron Hicks , who could return as early as July from Tommy John surgery. With HIcks, Stanton, Judge and Gardner in the outfield and Gio Urshela at third, Andujar’s opportunities will go down as compared to what the expectations were back in early March. It seems that the NFBC is taking this into account but the Army is still taking him rather early. Of course there is still the hesitation of drafters with regards to Stanton and Judge. As Jim Bowden noted on Thursday’s show, Howard “stole” Stanton in the 12th round, but this is one of the reasons why Andjuar’s stock is still relatively high. I expect with the restart of training camps and a healthy showing by both Yankee power hitters that Andujar’s ADP will rise even more.
Josh Lindblom, RP MIL - MDA ADP 292 / NFBC ADP 352
Is this a case of the MDA following its general emeritus Howard Bender’s advice? Howard has been a big proponent of Lindblom this off season. Lindblom has spent several successful years in Korea and returns at age 33 to the Brewers. How will his success translate? Will the shortened season make him more valuable as the league won’t have as much time to adjust to him? The Army is a full 5 rounds earlier based on a 12 team draft. Is the Army following their general like blind mice or are they getting a potential bargain that could propel them to the top of their league standings? These are the types of picks that win championships but won’t lose you one.
Nick Anderson, RP TB - MDA ADP 142 / NFBC ADP 157
There isn’t a huge difference here in ADP, but Anderson is a potential boom or bust pick. He went as early as pick 98 in one of the mocks this week. He is the presumptive closer for the
Rays, but they have a history of spreading saves opportunities throughout their bullpen. Closers that are going after Anderson are Hector Robles, Craig Kimbrel , Brandon Workman , Alex Colomé , Archie Bradley and Jose LeClerc. They all have their own issues and the upside of Anderson is what is driving his ADP to move ahead of them. Another discussion between Howard and Jim was the value of closers in a shortened season. Will closers from the better teams be more valuable than those from other teams regardless of their abilities? The Rays could be one of the better teams and this may lead to Anderson being worth his ADP. The Army may be onto something here. One of our regular mockers, Sin City, took Anderson in the 9th round in Thursday’s mock causing some oohs and aahs in the chat room.
I’d like to thank Howard and Jim for reviewing Wednesday’s mock on their show. I’d also like to strangle Jim for touting Kangasman’s draft. It was great to hear what they thought and it just added to what we learn each night while we mock and discuss our picks. There are many who believe mocks are not useful and I have to disagree. Please join us each week as we continue to mock and get ready for the season....which we hopefully happens. Stay safe!