A tip of the cap to all who are still alive in a survivor pool going into W4eek 17 and to those who have won. This is a format that only being perfect counts and although I tried, my picks went 13-3 this season. The last two weeks I’ve hopefully helped with the Bucs and Falcons coming through. This will be the last in this series as pools will either end or rules will dictate who you can pick to get to the winner’s circle.  Let’s dive into week 17.

There are five big favorites this week but they are all teams that many have used so far. The Cowboys are 10.5 point home favorites over Washington. New England is a 15.5 point home favorite over Miami. New Orleans is a 13 point favorite on the road in Carolina. Green Bay is a 12.5 point road favorite in Detroit and Kansas City is favored by nine at home over the Chargers.  With all of them fighting for playoff positioning they all should prevail in what should be relatively easy games. If you have one of them left you’re probably using them. 

The Cowboys are in a do or die situation.  Without a win, they have no chance. They’ve played better at home and should easily take down the Redskins.  The Patriots will clinch a bye with a win over the Dolphins. It’s happening folks. The Saints can end up anywhere from the first to third seed but need help, mainly a Packers loss, to get them a bye.  Saints win, but they’ll end up playing the Vikings in the first round as the third seed. The Packers can clinch a bye with a win and can gain home field throughout with a win and a Seahawks win over the 49ers.  It’s on the road, but Green Bay is playing well and should take this one easily. The Chiefs are a longshot for a bye as they need the Patriots to lose for them to move up to number two. If they lose, they can move down to four.  The question is would the Chiefs like to face the Patriots or the Ravens in round two on the road? If you believe that teams try to “choose” their path, you may want to stay away from this game.

If you don’t have any of these teams, the rest of the games are all close, divisional games with spreads less than five.  The Rams/Cardinals game is currently off the board at Westgate but the Rams are a popular pick on Yahoo with word that Kyler Murray was limited in practice with a hamstring injury.  Results in Week 17 are a crapshoot for the teams that have nothing to play for except pride. The Ravens are the only team that has reported that they will be resting their starters this week.  The Bills are locked into the fifth seed, so I wouldn’t expect them to play their starters the whole game. Out of these games, the Titans, Steelers, and Raiders all have a chance to make the playoffs and have something to play for.  They’re risky plays, but they may be the contrarian pick you need to win. I’d rank them Titans/Raiders/Steelers for confidence in winning.

My pick will be the Packers as I still have them to choose from. Just as important as to who to pick is to see who your opponents have left to pick from.  If everyone has the same teams available who are heavy favorites, do you join the herd or do you go with some other team and hope that team loses?  You can play it conservatively and go for a split pot or you can go for it and take a team like the Titans if you want to take the all or nothing approach.  

Good luck this week and thanks for following along over the season!  Always available on twitter @gasdoc_spit and if you’re into fantasy baseball, I’ll be involved in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide (don’t forget to buy one) and running the Mock Draft Army for baseball starting in February.  Have a Happy and Healthy New Year!