There is usually a decision to make each week going forward in Survivor pools. Take the chalk or go contrarian so that if the chalk loses, you’re still in it. In most pools, about 40% took the contrarian route last week and lost by picking the Rams, Colts or Ravens. My recommendation last week was to take the Chargers over the Dolphins despite them being on the road. If you followed that advice, you’re probably still reading this article. If not, hopefully I can keep you entertained while you lament wishing you did.
This week the Eagles and Chiefs are the two teams that fit our home, greater than 7 point favorites criteria. The Eagles face the Jets who will probably be without Sam Darnold for at least another week and have looked as bad as the Dolphins with their 3rd string quarterback running the offense. They come off a bye, which gave Adam Gase a little extra time to try to come up with something to get the offense going, but Gase couldn’t do that for two years in Miami, so I don’t see it happening in two weeks. For our purposes, the Eagles aren’t an option as I took them in week one. If you still have the Eagles as an option, they are the chalk this week, especially if Darnold is ruled out. Look for my update on Saturday as we’ll keep an eye on this situation. If Darnold plays against the swiss cheese Eagles secondary, this could change your mind.
The Chiefs are home against the Colts who lost to the Raiders at home last week and eliminated many in their pools. The Chiefs are an 11 point favorite and have a 72% chance of winning the game. Despite a game where Pat Mahomes didn’t wow anyone, the Chiefs were able to win on the road against a surprising Lions team. Home cooking and some key injuries to the Colts, the Chiefs are looking like a strong bet to win on Sunday.
Of course we can’t go a week without mentioning the Patriots until we pick them. They play another NFL patsy in the Redskins and are 15 ½ point favorites on the road which is the same situation as our pick last week. The Redskins have yet to decide publicly who their quarterback will be this week, but it really doesn’t matter. It’s not like they’re choosing between Montana and Marino and the coach making the choice will never be confused with Vince Lombardi. The Patriots will dominate this game but is the week to pick them? Next week the Patriots are the ONLY team with a projected chance of winning over 70%.
The off the radar games to consider are the Bears over the Raiders and the Vikings over the Giants. Both are on the road so that goes against our tenets. The Bears are given a 72% chance of winning while the Vikings have a 54% chance which actually surprises me. I think the Giants played an awful Redskins team this past week and got a lucky win against Tampa due to a missed field goal. The Giants also lost their rookie middle linebacker who was playing well, and this will hurt their run defense against a team that is looking to run. Again, these are the games that don’t fit our profile, but I discuss them as opportunities to go contrarian if that’s what you’re looking for.
Our pick this week: KANSAS CITY. Chalk is going to be the Eagles, but we used them in week one. The Patriots will also be chalky this week, but I’m saving them for next week. Yes they will be chalky next week, but as we’ve seen, chalk has been working so far. New England has also been used by a lot of people already, and by taking them next week when they are clearly the best bet, it may be to your advantage. We are doing a slight fade of the worst teams this week as we are not picking against the Jets or Redskins. The Chiefs should handle the Colts at home, especially if it becomes a shootout and the Colts are without TY Hilton and Marlon Mack . Keep an eye on the news as there are a lot of injuries to follow. Look for an update on Saturday to help you make your final decision and keep the train rolling.
UPDATE AS OF 10/5/2019
Injuries abound this week and here’s an update on those that affect some of our survivor pool plays.
Our pick of the week is Kansas City. Sammy Watkins showed up on the injury report and had a limited practice on Friday. Monitor his status on Sunday, but with the plethora of receivers on KC, and the likely return of Damien Williams at RB, the offense shouldn’t miss a beat. This is especially true as Darius Leonard and both starting safeties for the Colts have been ruled out. The Colts defense is ripe for a major day for Pat Mahomes. TY Hilton was limited the last two practices and Marlon Mack returned to a full practice on Friday after missing Wednesday and Thursday. Reports have it that Mack is still questionable to play and the Colts are considering resting Hilton as they are on a bye in week 6. Putting all the pieces together, I believe the injury status of all these players overall bodes well for our pick of the Chiefs.
The Eagles are the chalk pick of the week against the Jets. We took the Eagles in Week One but if you still have them on the board, it’s time to take them. They have a difficult schedule coming up with three straight road games and don’t face another soft team until December. The Jets announced that Sam Darnold will miss the game and any hope of a Jets upset went out the window on their drive down the Jersey Turnpike with this news. Their offensive line is also a mess and a hungry Philadelphia defensive line who have done very little this year in regards of a pass rush will be all over Luke Falk . The Eagles should win this game easily.
If you plan on taking the Patriots this week, Colt McCoy shouldn’t interfere with your plans. The Redskins are a mess and shouldn’t offer much of a fight against TB12 and company. Julien Edelman and Rex Burkhead were both limited in practice but should play. I’m targeting the Patriots next week as there aren’t many great options otherwise in week 6.
The Bears face the Raiders in London. I don’t care if it were in Oakland, Thailand, or the North Pole. The Raiders will most likely be without Tyrell Williams and the remaining receiving corps does not have the skill to overcome this tough Bears defense. Darren Waller will probably be a PPR monster catching 15 passes, but that’s about it for the Oakland offense. The Bears are a great contrarian pick to go against the chalk and hope for an upset in one of those games.
With the shenanigans going on in Minnesota, I’d stay away from them even though I think they should handle the Giants.
Good luck this week and hope to see you carry on to Week 6!