Last week I presented a general guide as to how to approach your survivor pools. This week we dive into week one of the 2019 NFL season. The first week of each season is one of the hardest to handicap as most of the starters for each team haven’t played much during the preseason. Let’s start off by taking a look at last year’s week one.
Based on the formula of most likely winners being home favorites of 7 points or more, there were three teams that fit that category last season. The Saints were -9.5 over Tampa, the Ravens were -7 over Buffalo, and the Packers were -7.5 over the Bears. We saw the Saints get upset and the Packers had to come back from a 20-0 deficit getting lucky with a Kyle Fuller drop on an easy interception with about three minutes to play. The Ravens breezed by the Bills by 43. This falls in line with what we expected as playing these games garnered a 67% winning percentage vs. the historical 80%. The only thing here was the biggest favorite was the one that lost.
We also saw five upsets last year based on the Vegas line. Some of those that lost were small favorites but the Bengals, Jets, Chiefs (no one knew what they were to become), Bucs and Dolphins all won despite being underdogs. Week 1 is treacherous when it comes to these pools as there is no sample size to go by and no preseason performance to indicate how teams will do with the minimal playing time of many key players on each team.
Let’s move on to week 1
Home team in CAPS
Odds from Westgate Superbook as of 9pm 9/4
Thursday
CHICAGO -3 Green Bay
Sunday
PHILADELPHIA -10 Washington
Kansas City -3.5 JACKSONVILLE
NY JETS -3 Buffalo
LA Rams -2.5 CAROLINA
MINNESOTA -4 Atlanta
Baltimore -6.5 MIAMI
CLEVELAND -5 Tennessee
LA CHARGERS -6.5 Indianapolis
SEATTLE -9.5 Cincinnati
DALLAS -7 NY Giants
Detroit -3 ARIZONA
TAMPA PK San Francisco
NEW ENGLAND -5.5 Pittsburgh
Monday
NEW ORLEANS -7 Houston
OAKLAND PK Denver
From the primer last week we identified home team favorites of 10 points or more having a .858 winning percentage since 2003. The Eagles have just moved into this category as the line has moved from 9.5 to 10. If we expand it to 7 points and a historical .761 winning percentage we have four such teams. The Saints and Cowboys sneak in as 7 point favorites. The Seahawks are favored by 9.5 just missing that 10 point threshold. So of these four options, where is the public putting their money?
As of Monday, only 51% of bets on the Dallas/Giants game is going towards Dallas as of Sunday. There seemed to be an expectation of a close game. Now with Zeke signed and expected to play a shift in bets towards Dallas has driven that number to 60%. Dallas guaranteed a lot of money to Elliott and it appears the public liked the move. Another aspect of picking in these pools is to leery of divisional games. These heated rivalries can conjure up unexpected results.
In New Orleans the bets were going the other way. 51% was being wagered on Houston but now it’s the Saints being bet on by this percentage. There have been some serious changes going on in Houston with the trade of Clowney and the trade for Tunsil. The Saints have a chip on their shoulder after being wronged in the playoffs last year and we’ll see if this carries over to 2019. The Saints at home are 32-16 under Sean Payton with a 6-2 record last year.
Another divisional game pits the Eagles and Redskins at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles are the biggest favorite of the week and considered a contender for the divisional crown. The Redskins have given the starting job to Case Keenum over first round pick Dwayne Haskins which may be just to give Haskins a little more time to develop. The holdout of their best offensive lineman, Trent Williams, gives the opportunity for the Eagles to put pressure on Keenum throughout the game. It may be difficult for the Redskins to put up points against the Eagles defense and the Eagles may need this type of performance as we haven’t seen Carson Wentz this off season. Is he recovered from his injuries of last year? 63% of the money is landing on the Eagles side which is a 10% increase from Monday.
One of the biggest favorites of the week are the Seahawks. The Bengals come to town with new coach Zac Taylor, a devastated offensive line and no AJ Green. They are predicted to finish last in their division by most experts. This is one of the easier games on the Seahawks schedule but as of Monday the public was putting its money on the Bengals with 55% going towards the visitors from Cincinnati. That has shifted somewhat and now it’s split evenly. Seattle was able to re-sign Jaron Brown after letting him go to make room for Clowney. DK Metcalf is reportedly practicing and has a chance to suit up following a knee scope just two weeks ago. This could bode well for the Seahawks but If the rushing game struggles, this could end up being a closer game than expected.
One of the steps in my primer is to pick against bad teams. The Dolphins have made it clear that they are tanking. The Ravens are 6.5 point favorites on the road and would be one of my top picks if this game was in Baltimore. If you want to go against the grain, this is an opportunity to do so. 83% of public bets are riding the Ravens.
My pick this week will be the Eagles. There are high expectations in Philadelphia and they are a good team. With the line moving to 10, it’s hard to go against our best indicator with an 86% winning percentage. The first week is about playing it safe as it is a week where the unexpected happens. The Seahawks and Ravens are also in play as alternatives. I am sure there’s the temptation of picking the Cowboys now that Elliott is back but you get another chance later in the year to pick them over the Giants at a time when Zeke will be at full speed.
Updated as of September 7th, 2019
The Bears and Packers kicked off the 100th NFL season on Thursday and if you’re not a fan of one of those teams, you are still anxiously awaiting the start to the season. The game did help us garner some information for both fantasy football and your survivor pool picks for the upcoming year. There were two takeaways that were relevant to my Survivor Pool Primer article from last week. One was to avoid the Thursday night game. Now this isn’t exactly the best example as both teams were not coming off short weeks, but it still helps drive the point home. Wait until Sunday or Monday. You’ll have more information, the teams will have more time to prepare, and the players will have time to heal up from nagging injuries. The other takeaway is to avoid most divisional rivalries. This week’s pick of the Eagles over the Redskins is contrary to that, but it’s the rare occasion. If you are weary of the rivalry aspect of that game, you can pivot to the Seahawks or Ravens this week.
What it also showed us was that you never know what these teams have in store after a preseason that no one plays in. There is also all the hype for certain players like David Montgomery who laid a big egg. This of course could be the Matt Nagy effect as he did the same with Jordan Howard last year.
Week one in eliminator pools is treacherous. Most of the lines on these games are probably closer than they would be if this schedule were in week five let’s say when we would have had some history to go by. This is the week to stick with the extreme favorites. Get through this week and then you can maybe start to map things out a week or two ahead.
There has been very little news affecting the top picks for this week. Alshon Jeffery suffered what they said was a biceps injury, but reports have it that he’ll play. John Boyle of Seahawks.com reports that DK Metcalf, who is coming off a knee scope three weeks ago, had a full practice of Friday and will play. His snaps may be limited, but this gives Russell Wilson a huge red zone target which can take some of the pressure off of Tyler Lockett. Jadeveon Clowney and Ziggy Ansah are both listed as questionable but both should play as this had to do with conditioning and not an injury. For the Ravens, rookie receiver Marquise Brown was limited in practice on Friday but coach John Harbaugh said he’ll play on Sunday. Brown is recovering from foot surgery in February.
The lines for these games haven’t changed since Wednesday night. The Eagles are still the only home favorite of at least ten points with the Seahawks almost there at 9.5. The Ravens remain a 6.5-point road favorite in Miami. With not much news or change in the lines, the Eagles remain the pick for week 1.
Remember, don’t lock your pick in until Sunday. If there’s any news that may alter my recommendations I’ll have an update on Saturday. If you have any questions regarding these picks or any lineup questions for your teams just hit me up on Twitter @gasdoc_spit