With Week 2 of the NFL preseason and Week 3 of the Mock Draft Army complete, fantasy football owners are starting to lock in on their targets for their drafts. Everyone’s drafts are drawing near if they haven’t been done yet, and in the chat room you can tell there is a bit of an edge as to everyone’s opinion as to who to take when. In this review, let’s take a look at who the Army is higher and lower on than the ADP averages across the industry.
As always we start off with our Ezekiel Elliott /Melvin Gordon holdout update as the status of these two players can alter how a draft will go at the drop of a hat. Now that we have had a week of Elliott’s holdout reflected in our mocks, has Zeke’s stock dropped as much as Gordon’s? The Army’s answer is a resounding NO. Elliott was picked fifth overall in four of the five drafts this week and the outlier was at fourth overall. He continues to hold his ADP as there appears to be expectations by the MDA that he’ll be there week one. I have my doubts and the risk is there as it was with Le’Veon Bell last year. I have one draft with the fifth pick, but that isn’t until opening weekend so it will be easy to make a decision by then. UPDATE: As I write this there are reports of Elliott returning to Dallas. It was apparently the plan all along for him to return from Mexico around this time of the month. There are no reports of an agreement, but speculation is that something will get done. Zeke will continue to be a top 4 pick with this news as the risk appears to have lessened today.
The news on Gordon continues to be bleak. There are no rumored trades nor are the Chargers meeting his contract demands. His August ADP in the Army has gone up to 16th overall from 10th overall in July. Gordon will continue to be a second round flyer and I’ve seen him drop to as late as the eighth round in some best ball drafts. Hopefully someone comes to their senses and gets him on the field soon.
So who does the Army like more than the masses on the popular drafting sites? Dalvin Cook continues to be a darling for the Army with an ADP of 12 versus 17 according to the rest of the industry. Is this the Howard Bender Effect? The expectations of Cook rising to meet his pre-ACL tear production are there. Colby Conway did a great job with Cook’s profile in the draft guide. With Kevin Stefanski as Offensive Coordinator the last three weeks of last season, the Vikings ran the ball an average of eight more times per game. Add to that the departure of Latavius Murray and Cook is in line to be a heavily used RB1.
As we move a little further down the board it becomes clear that another favorite of the Army is Devonta Freeman . Freeman’s ADP is 25th overall and he’s being taken ahead of Kerryon Johnson , Damien Williams , Josh Jacobs , Leonard Fournette , Marlon Mack , and Aaron Jones who all have a lower ADP on the major sites. Freeman has shown in the past that he can be a lead back but his injury history and timeshare with Tevin Coleman have kept his value in check. With Coleman no longer in the picture, the Army is expecting a heavier load. Can Freeman stay healthy enough to warrant being taken ahead of these other backs?
James White is being taken a full round ahead of the other sites by the Army. With an ADP by the Army of 46 and of 57 on average, the Patriot fans of the Army are speaking up. In PPR leagues White is a great pick as an RB3/Flex player. He virtually functions as a WR and can easily outperform some WR2’s each week. Last year’s 123 targets, 87 receptions, 751 Yards, and seven touchdowns can easily match that of mid-tier WR’s. Add in his five rushing touchdowns and he is someone worth taking in the late fourth/early fifthth round. There is talk out of Patriots camp that Sony Michel has some “catching” abilities but as with all this preseason fluff, don’t take it seriously (remember what they said about Jordan Howard in Chicago last year). White’s ADP for the Army and other sites has him being taken around the same time as David Montgomery and Chris Carson . It’s a spot where some are looking for an RB2 and some for a third. Montgomery has the rookie risk along with replacing the “production” in Chicago’s offense that Howard had last year. Carson is expected to be the lead back in Seattle but Rashad Penny can put a dent into his production. White is probably the safest pick of the three but you can easily make a case for all of them at this point in a draft.
In general, the MDA seems to be taking running backs earlier and quarterbacks later in most mock drafts. Going down the board Lamar Miller , Miles Sanders, and Tevin Coleman are also going earlier. The patience shown by the Army when it comes to taking QB’s has Bender ecstatic. Howard, and a lot of our staff, preach waiting on QB as the depth at the position in single-QB leagues allows you to stock up on your bench before taking one. Compared to the NFFC, Matt Ryan , Carson Wentz , Baker Mayfield , and Aaron Rodgers can all be had a round later in our mocks. Being able to take Mayfield at 83 in the MDA allows you to upgrade your WR to Allen Robinson (who I believe will outperform his ADP) from the likes of Dante Pettis , Cortland Sutton, and Sterling Shepard . Each league you play in has its unique scoring system so that always comes into play, but waiting on QB is a strategy that is hard to go against.
Wide Receivers that have the Army’s interest are Cooper Kupp , Will Fuller , and Corey Davis in the earlier rounds. Kupp has come off the board as the first, second, and third Rams wideout taken. He is a bit of a risk coming off injury, but there is little doubt as to his importance in the Rams offense. Fuller, who I happened to watch play against my son for four years in high school, is one of those picks that you cross your fingers he doesn’t get injured on every play. If you can tolerate that stress in your secondary or tertiary wide receiver, then he is a high upside pick. He has shown chemistry with Watson and there is enough to go around in the Texans offense. The enigma of Corey Davis has him falling down the board on the other sites, but the Army has a little more confidence in him. Is it Davis himself or is it the Titans offense along with Mariota’s inability to perform to his expectations? Davis had some big games last year but the consistency wasn’t there. In the range of rounds six-to-eight he is someone who can add to your bench/flex with upside.
Fuller’s teammate Keke Coutee , along with Sammy Watkins are not favorites in these mocks. Coutee’s ADP of 125 is almost a full two rounds later than his average on the NFFC and FFPC. With Fuller being a darling, it’s not unexpected that as a WR3 in the Texans offense that he is dropping here. Despite the early drafts with the expectation of Tyreek Hill ’s suspension, Watkins has been taken an average of 19 picks later in our drafts. Watkins has to battle Kelce and Hill for targets and with rookie Mecole Hardman showing his abilities in camp, his value continues to drop. Watkins is at best a WR3 this season and the Army’s assessment is a good one.
Join us this week as you get ready for your drafts. We’re getting into the heart of drafting season and the Mock Draft Army can help you prepare along with our Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets. As always, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter @gasdoc_spit. Let’s Go!!!